Crypto gaming predictions for 2026
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CRYPTO GAMING PREDICTIONS FOR 2026
About 2 weeks ago, I reflected on crypto gaming 2025 through the lens of Delphi Digital’s (Dec ‘24) predictions. On this topic, I want to share my own predictions about the industry in 2026 today:
More studios shutting down:
Based on the token data 2025 (2nd part of this NL), it’s apparent that over 90% of TGEs have failed this year. The vast majority (if not all) of these studios haven’t figured out how to monetize their game either, and it’s unlikely they will
As the runway depletes, and without any signs of the funding environment improving, it’s just a matter of when these (dozens of) games will announce their closures, instead of if
Fundamentals, and more fundamentals…
2025 was the year in which this industry finally “matured”. Part of this was 40 or 50 studios shutting down, and the other part is how the focus returned to fundamentals (revenue, wow!)
In 2026, factors such as “polished products, clear value capture, reliable monetization, and stable transactional rails” ~ BGA: 2025 state of the industry report, will be the ones that drive the growth of the industry
The death of “AAA crypto games” and the continued rise of…:
This year proved that (wannabe) “AAA” and crypto often don’t blend well together. Often, these target audiences in traditional gaming still have preconceived notions about anything related to crypto gaming, and rightfully so. While at the same time, simply having much better titles to pick from than what our little industry offers
So many millions were sunk into games with big (AAA) visions, but never got completed, or were never good enough in the first place
Instead, the smaller and less-funded titles, like indie, A, and some AA games, will be the source of potential success, innovation, and new business models
Stablecoin adoption driven by TGE massacre:
Memento Research created a report reviewing the state of token launches in 2025 (all industries) and shared that “84.7% (100/118) are below TGE valuation”. The market hasn’t been kind to altcoins, and according to my own data, the numbers are even worse in the gaming sector. TGEing in these circumstances is 4/5 times a death sentence (the whole industry is maturing)
I believe these scary numbers will be a strong driver for stablecoin adoption. It will be a way to derisk the death driven by your token chart. Furthermore, it opens up more options for monetizing early on, and studios can still issue their own token at a later stage
Yet, there are still too many security risks for traditional gaming companies to move/hold their treasuries onchain in stablecoins
Apptokens:
Limit Break introduced Apptokens (ATs) almost a year ago. Yet, there have only been two games (I know of at least) that have implemented them: Pixels and Fishing Frenzy. And it’s not that their players are very vocal about it either. So, I suspect that ATs are a much more potent tool when used with non-crypto audiences
I believe ATs were too early for 2025, and think we won’t see their potential in 2026 as well. Yet, I remain cautiously optimistic that a company like Mythical Games experiments with them and experiences the benefits with their audience
Gamify everything
The definition of what a “game” is, is expanding. Consumer behavior is shifting to gamified engagement. “Consumer apps” now feature viral (game) loops. This also means that the category of crypto gaming is expanding in a sense, and I think it is bullish in terms of broadening the area of potential success
E.g., is Sports.fun a sports management game on top of a prediction market?
Pretty much in line with Ronin’s thesis of becoming “Ethereum’s Gamification Engine” or the “Nintendo of Ethereum”
I believe this can become an important driver for growth, how the market thinks about gaming, and how it affects sentiment and liquidity
I’ll leave it at these six, largely broader (macro) predictions for now. And, might share some more detailed predictions, e.g., “X amount of games with 100K+ players” in early 2026
GAMING TOKEN DATA 2025
Today, I want to share my final overview of gaming TGEs in 2025. A turbulent year for the altcoin market, and especially for gaming. I shared my last update in this newsletter on October 13th. This update uses data as of December 22nd
Overview of the data:
Total launches 100+, tracking 89 TGEs
July was the most active month with 11 launches, and Q3 was the most active quarter with 26 launches
The distribution in launches also seems to reflect the worsening market sentiment in Q4 this year: Q1: 20 | Q2: 21 | Q3: 26 | Q4: 14
In Dec ‘23 and ‘24, crypto gaming did pretty well, but that doesn’t seem to be the case in Dec ‘25
Average decrease in market cap compared to ATH: -76.4%
Of the 89 TGEs being tracked, only 58 tokens (65%) could be used to calculate the average drawdown from ATH. Simply, because the other tokens are so “dead”, they lack sufficient data
This is a slight increase from October’s -72%
Average mcap: ~$19.6M (based on 69/89 launches)
Perhaps, an unexpected increase, compared to the previous average of $16.7M, back in October. However, as we know, this number is very top-heavy. The median is only $1.5M, and the average when excluding the top 5 is ~$5.5M
Market cap brackets:
64/69 (93%) launches have a market cap below $50M
55/69 (79%) launches have a market cap below $10M
52/69 (75%) launches have a market cap below $5M
41/69 (59%) launches have a market cap below $2M
The number of market caps below $2M continues to increase (previously 33), illustrating how a vast number of tokens are almost literally trending to 0
Average 24h volume: $14.9M (84/89)
Again, the numbers are heavily skewed by the outliers. The median is only $90K in 24h volume, and the average when excluding the top 5 is ~$1.34M
Largest token by FDV: BEAT* ($4300M)
Followed by ESPORTS**($398,5M), NXPC ($384,3M), TAKE ($330,6M), and POWER ($284,2M)
* ** I do have my doubts about the legitimacy and sustainability of BEAT and ESPORTS when looking at their recent price action
Largest token by market cap: BEAT ($687,2M)
Followed by ESPORTS ($102,4M), NXPC ($87,9M), POWER ($59,9M), and TAKE ($58,5M)
Market cap of all gaming tokens (CMC data): $7.66B
A monstrous drawdown of over $10B, compared to when we last checked at $17.7B. Even though CMC data isn’t super accurate (e.g., it includes tokens like VIRTUALS), it’s the most representative number for the crypto gaming industry I have
The Tweet shared above, which I just discovered (it’s from March), was painful to look at
Despite a few pleasant surprises in the token landscape (like POWER, TAKE, and CHECK), the “doom and gloom” hasn’t stopped. And again, when gauging the data (largely looking at volume and mc), it looks like another 40 or so studios will be closing their doors soon
ON THE RISE
This was the last newsletter for the year. I wish you all a Merry Christmas and happy holidays. For a better year for crypto gaming in 2026!
Disclaimer: None of this information should be taken as financial advice. My writings only represent my personal opinions. DYOR + I will hold some of the assets mentioned in this newsletter.
Amazing read. Just curious: why do these projects insist on TGE? Is a token really necessary or are they just looking to get a nice pump and sell to get a good return? I find that mostly, the users who made the game what it is are left holding the bag, and become angry with the studio.
A great example is Brave Browser: $100M ARR but its token is dead because it chose not to direct value to its token. Aren't games the same in that its an application that doesn't need to focus on minting tokens, but instead earning money?